08-02-2006

QUO VADIS, ISRAEL?

Martin van Creveld, a professor at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, is considered one of the world's most eminent experts on military history and strategy. His books include "The Sword and the Olive: A Critical History of the Israeli Defense Force" (1998) and his widely influential 1991 book, "The Transformation of War." Van Creveld famously wrote that the U.S. invasion of Iraq was "the most foolish war since Emperor Augustus in 9 B.C. sent his legions into Germany and lost them."

By Martin van Creveld

JERUSALEM -- With several fully armed divisions, the Soviet Union in 1979 only took a few days to capture Kabul but spent another 10 years trying to fight the mujahedeen before being forced to throw in the towel. With what were said to be the best-equipped, best-trained and best-led armed forces the world had ever seen, the in 2003 took only three weeks to capture Baghdad, from which it may yet be forced to withdraw without having secured its aims.

Looking back, both the Soviet Union and the , the latter perhaps even more than the former, engaged in wars that were totally unnecessary and even foolish. No Afghan had ever threatened the Soviet homeland; at a time when Newsweek was celebrating the Red Army as the most powerful in history, the very thought was preposterous. Absolutely no proof existed (or exists) that Saddam Hussein had engaged in terrorism against the U.S, whereas his alleged weapons of mass-destruction turned out to be a myth.

The case of is very different. Cross-border terrorism from into Israeli territory got under way in 1968 after 20 years of near-absolute calm. The outcome was a growing Israeli involvement in the affairs of its northern neighbor until, in June 1982, a full-scale invasion was launched.

Israeli troops took just one week to reach Beirut; eighteen years later, after countless ups and down, the last of them left to a line marked by the U.N on the ground. Certainly the attack by Hezbollah of July 12, 2006, in which several Israeli soldiers were killed and two others abducted, was not, or at any rate should not have been, unexpected. Equally certainly, it was unprovoked.

Forced to respond, 's war against Hezbollah has not been easy. In part, this is because the enemy has been using its Iranian-built and provided rockets to launch indiscriminate attacks on Israel's northern district, something of which neither the Afghan mujahedeen nor the various insurgent groups in Iraq were or are even remotely capable. 

In part it is because the Israeli Defense Force, worried about taking too many casualties of its own, is advancing slowly and deliberately. Also, however, it is because the Israelis have been trying to minimize civilian casualties inside itself. One example of this wish has been the actions of the Israeli air force; while aiming to close Beirut Airport as a major transit point by which Hezbollah is re-supplied, its method in doing so was to attack runways and fuel depots, both of which are home to very few people. Another is the repeated distribution of leaflets that call on civilians living near Hezbollah targets to leave -- even though, by doing so, the Israelis alerted the enemy as well.

The results of the campaign so far have not been pretty. As happened to the in Kosovo, and a dozen other places, some of the ordnance dropped by the Israelis has missed its target, killing noncombatants, as in Qana, and causing cries of anguish not just in but throughout much of the world.

The Hezbollah guerrillas, occupying difficult terrain and operating from fortifications that had taken years to build, have proved to be tough nuts to crack. In part this is because they have fought well and have not run away as so many Arab armies have in the past. Mainly, however, it is because, dispersed and hidden among a dense civilian population, they have been hard to find.

The fact that Hezbollah is supported by and , both of them enemies not only of but of the U.S as well, is an open secret. More difficult to assess are the links between the Lebanese “resistance” (to what? is not an occupied country) and global terrorism as a whole. Certainly ties do exist between Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli terrorist movements, such as Hamas, and indeed the former has long provided the latter with training as well as funding. While the details are obscure, it would be surprising if no links existed between Hezbollah and at least some of the numerous warring groups in , the local representatives of al-Qaida included.   

If history is any guide, will not be able to win a complete victory by wiping out Hezbollah — peace is achieved by negotiation, not by force of arms. It may, however, very well succeed in achieving some of its other aims. First, it may demonstrate to the Lebanese the extent that Hezbollah has put its country in jeopardy and thus reduce support for it — a process that, some say, is under way already.

Second, it may establish a security strip along its northern border. With or without an international force in place, such a strip will prevent short-range rockets, as well as other forms of cross-border attacks, from reaching its territory. In this context it is important to note that, throughout the years 1982-2000, not a single party of Lebanese fighters succeeded in reaching . It is true that Hezbollah also has some long-range rockets capable of reaching deep into . However, they are fewer in number and, being more conspicuous, much easier to detect and to deal with.

Above all, can give its neighbors, in particular, a much-needed object lesson in what may happen to them if they launch another war against it. In fact, considering that, in spite of howls of protest, so far no other country has lifted a finger to help , that objective may have been achieved already.

(c) 2006 Global Viewpoint
Distributed by Tribune Media Services, INC. (Distributed 8/1/06)