07-24-2006

FORMER MOSSAD CHIEF: WAR WITH HEZBOLLAH IS CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS; NO WEDGE CAN BE DRIVEN BETWEEN SYRIA AND IRAN

Shabtai Shavit was director general of the Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency, between 1989 and 1996. Now the chairman of the Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel, he spoke with Global Viewpoint editor Nathan Gardels on Sunday, July 23.

By Shabtai Shavit

Nathan Gardels:  Something unprecedented has happened in the long Middle East conflict. Instead of lambasting Israel, last week Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan condemned Hezbollah for provoking war.

Does this mean that these major Arab Sunni states now see Iran and the emerging "Shiite crescent" from southern Lebanon through Iraq to Tehran as a greater threat to the region than Israel?

Shabtai Shavit: Basically, yes, that is what it means. The good news, I suppose, is that the strategic perception of the region by the moderate Arab leaders and their European counterparts as well as the U.S. has shifted to finally seeing the truth of the matter. This is not a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah over a piece of land on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Rather, it goes deep down to the core of the conflict that exists between Western societies and fundamentalist Islam. As politically incorrect as it might be to say, let's face it: This is a clash of civilizations. Or, as some euphemize it, a fight between the forces of order and disorder.

One side does not accept the idea of coexistence but believes it has been ordained by God Almighty to make the rest of the world Islamic - or to eliminate it. Whenever I say this, it sounds like I'm describing medieval times. Unfortunately, it is the real story.

Gardels: It seems obviously true for Israel as well: The emergent power of the Shiite crescent is a greater threat to Israel than the traditionally hostile Arab regimes.

Shavit: That's right. Iran carries the flag of radical Islam. If the world does not stop the mullahs that run that regime, in a few years their hands will be on the nuclear trigger. And we are target number one.

Gardels: On Sunday, Saudi Prince Bandar, the chief of the Saudi national security council, met at the White House with President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to chart out a plan to try to split the Iran-Syria alliance, which stands behind Hezbollah and Hamas. Is that a plausible scenario?

Shavit: No. Even Prince Bandar with all his talents cannot manage to drive this wedge between Iran and Syria. During the Cold War, Syria was supported by the Soviet Union. When the Soviets disappeared, Syria was alone in a vacuum. This vacuum was filled by the Iranians. Syria had to chose whether to remain alone and vulnerable to change, or to link up with Iran as a substitute. They chose the Iranians.

Bandar would have to convince the Americans to pay such a high price for Syria - in essence a guarantee of the survival of the Assad regime - I find it doubtful they would pay. For Syria to split with Iraq without such a guarantee would be regime suicide.

Gardels: In retrospect, was the U.S. invasion of Iraq a mistake since it brought the Shiite majority to power, including a regime that, judging by statements in recent days by Iraqi leaders, is every bit as hostile to Israel as Saddam was?

Shavit: The idea of democratization is still too early for the Arab countries to adopt. It was definitely a wrong assumption that a democratic regime in Iraq would automatically be pro-Israel. Democratization in the Arab world right now is the ultimate recipe for radical Muslims to take over moderate governments through elections. The first example was Algeria, of course, but they were not allowed to take power. Then the Palestinian Authority was replaced by Hamas. Then there is Iraq today. In the future, maybe Lebanon. Hezbollah was already brought into government by elections.

Gardels: In the so-called war on terror, should the West worry more about the Salafist-Sunni radicals of the Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida kind or the power of the new Shiite crescent?

Shavit: There are three different kinds of Muslim fanaticism. First, the fanaticism that comes from the school of Osama bin Laden, a worldwide terrorist network. The second kind is state terrorism - the Iranians. The third, regrettably, is the fanaticism of the Wahabis. They are the smartest because they spread their anti-West message peacefully all over the world through spending huge amounts of money building schools and mosques.

(c) 2006 Global Viewpoint
Distributed by Tribune Media Services, INC. (Distributed 7/24/06)