12-16-2005

I WANT TO BELIEVE THIS IS A NEW BEGINNING IN IRAQ, BUT . . .

Madeleine Albright, U.S. secretary of state under President Bill Clinton, heads the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs. She spoke with Global Viewpoint editor Nathan Gardels on Friday after the Iraqi election.

By Madeleine Albright

Nathan Gardels: The turnout for the election Thursday in Iraq was large by all accounts, making that country the first modern constitutional democracy in the Arab world. Does this vindicate President George Bush’s strategy?

Madeleine Albright: It is terrific that so many Iraqis showed up to vote and that the Sunnis, in particular, voted in such large numbers. I want to believe this is a new beginning, but this is just an early part of the process. Without pouring cold water on it, the Iraqis have to first count the votes, create a government and rework the constitution.

Getting to this point might been done in a less contentious way and could have been managed better. Like many others, I have always understood the “why” for this war, but not the Bush calculations about “why now” and “what next.” But we’re here. I want this to work. If it does, it is good for the Iraqi people and good for the U.S.

If it does work out, the Iraqi people should get credit for it, not Bush.

Gardels: This is the last step of the political process -- parliamentary elections for a four-year government -- that was to follow the U.S. invasion. Should this set the stage then for a major U.S. withdrawal in the near future?

Albright: I’m hoping that the new Sunni involvement in the political process will spill over into the security situation by dampening the insurgency, which then will allow for a U.S. withdrawal. I believe that 2006 will be a year of transition.

Everything depends on the extent the Iraqis can manage their own security, which might be easier if the Sunni “buy-in” for the election also happens in terms of cooperating on the security front.

Gardels: Is it time then to negotiate with the Sunni insurgents?                  

Albright: It is time we are smart enough to stop seeing the insurgents as a monolithic group. That means talking with the indigenous groups is the right thing to do, but not with the foreign fighters.

Gardels: At this point, is there really much difference between President Bush’s “strategy for victory” and that of the opposition Democrats? You seem to be saying also, as Bush does, “when they stand up, we’ll stand down.”

Albright: We don’t know what the president really means, when and how. The U.S. Congress wants specifics and accountability from the White House and Pentagon. I am not for a timetable of withdrawal. But, for example, the majority of the Senate has asked for a regular report from President Bush on the progress of reconstruction and security.

Gardels: So, this position is something like “trust but verify.”

Albright: Yes, something like that.                   

Gardels: What are the stumbling blocks we need to look for as we go down the road?

Albright: My perspective on this comes as president of the National Democratic Institute, which trained most of the 15,000 domestic observers on the ground in Iraq during the election. These observers were cross-regional, Kurds going to the Shia areas and so on.

What they saw before the elections was a level of intimidation in the south by the Shia, and also in the north by the Kurds so that the Kurds would stay united. There was more contention in the lead-up to the election than was evident to those not on the ground.

This suggests that the political negotiations ahead on the constitution and forming the government will be quite complicated. There may be different alliances formed on different issues. The Sunnis and the Kurds might, for example, be more interested in women’s rights and ensuring a level of secularism. On the other hand, the Kurds and the Shia might get together on determining the extent of autonomy in the new federal system.

There will be a lot of cross discussions that might be very energizing in terms of the democratic process, or they could lead to serious deterioration.

For these reasons, it is way too early to say this election is any kind of vindication, or that the whole thing is over and done.

This is an exciting moment for Iraq. But, at best, it is a 50-50 proposition now whether it all works out.

 (c) 2005, Global Viewpoint
Distributed by Tribune Media Services, INC. (Distributed 12/16/05)